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Hello Guys this is my first post and thought it was a very relevant post to start with. I am currently looking at the dacia range because they do have a petrol estate in their range and I do 25K plus. WHY because the modern diesel is just a time bomb waiting to go off, new cars are plagued with DPF failures even motorway cars, dual mass, EGR failures the list goes on. Every few years they add some other expensive item to fail and the diesel car is now predicted to be extinct very soon.

Yes you read that right, industry now expect the diesel to be extinct in as little as 6 years for 99% of private buyers and the majority of fleet cars. Year after year euro regulations have been hammering nails into the diesels coffin, they are just not reliable anymore. The final nail will be euro 6 in 5 months, you will now need another 2-3K worth of equipment tacked onto the time bomb and this little beauty will need an additive called ADBLUE added at an extra cost at a rate 0f 20-1 diesel usage. Now the haulage industry has adapted to this very well but all the main manufacturers are predicting the end of the diesel very soon, they in no shape or form make financial sense once you factor in 1-2K repairs for the DPF and the host of other common failures.

London taxis are now changing to petrol and Ford are now introducing petrol back into vans albeit the smaller versions for now but do plan on petrol for their larger vans. So yes you might save a few pounds but when the DPF goes or some other expensive emissions system that saving will be wiped out. This euro 6 will indeed kill the diesel off, Ford are going one step further and predicting that diesel fuel will shoot up soon as it does cost more to produce than petrol, as the number of diesels decline and they are predicting they will fall off a cliff next year. Most manufactures have now accepted that Euro 7 will not be possible without some highly uneconomical decisions and that will be the end of the diesel.

I have looked into this and yes it's all speculation but when people realise that the true cost of running a diesel is thousands more than just fuel the decline will happen fast. I for one will not buy a second hand car with DPF, its time bomb waiting to go off and the failure rate is horrendous, this new technology for euro 6 is proving to be very expensive and some major repair bills for failed units waiting for you.

I for one will not touch a diesel now based on what I know about failures and I honestly do believe the diesel will be history in 10 years. I do not know what the DPF failure rate is on dacia but its pretty grim on Renaults as a whole.

Their official line is they will cover the cost of one regen but after that you're on your own, think it's about £300 a shot, the diesel isn't looking too good now is it. http://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/2012/1/9/problems-with-diesel-particulate-filters-may-push-companies-towards-petrol/42044/

Sorry more up to date opinion http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/diesel-dominance-threatened-eu-emissions-rules

Fleets are running a mile from them and manufacturers are working flat out on new petrols. I for one will never touch a diesel again they just do not add up and have never added up since the introduction of the DPF.

So if you still are thinking of a diesel get in before euro 6 comes into force in september, some old models will remain but they will sell out fast. I for one would not want to be adding ADblue all the time and in some cases they are insisting the dealer does it for you at a cost i might add on top of buying the additive.
 

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Sorry forgot to add this video shows how to top up with ADBlue but these guys have the software to reset the system. If you do not take it to the dealer I believe the computers does not get reset and you start getting warnings with about 1000 miles to go. Not 100% sure of the details but about 300 miles if the computer thinks you are empty or not running on ADBlue it will put your engine into limp mode. Now this is not just a case of putting in bigger tanks this urea (AdBlue) has a very short shelf life, what a load of hassle. On average they think it will be every 6000-10000 miles or every 6 months , the rush to petrol has just started.

 

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Sorry forgot to add this video shows how to top up with ADBlue but these guys have the software to reset the system. If you do not take it to the dealer I believe the computers does not get reset and you start getting warnings with about 1000 miles to go. Not 100% sure of the details but about 300 miles if the computer thinks you are empty or not running on ADBlue it will put your engine into limp mode. Now this is not just a case of putting in bigger tanks this urea (AdBlue) has a very short shelf life, what a load of hassle. On average they think it will be every 6000-10000 miles or every 6 months , the rush to petrol has just started.

What with this and the rust issue the future's looking bleak for the GENERAL!
 

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Yes you have presented one side of a many faceted issue.

The other factors to consider are the fact that at the moment refinery capacity in Europe is set to decrease, and while this will increase the price of diesel fuel it will also increase the price of petrol - diesel is a by-product of petrol production. However, the Russians are ramping up low sulphur diesel production and are planning to sell it cheap to the west by 2016 - so its a case of watch this space.

The technological issues are also not that clear cut. True cleaning up a diesel is expensive BUT much of this work has been done and clean diesels are achievable, the problem for petrol engine designers is that both petrol and diesel must be modified for euro 6 and 7 regs to achieve similar pollutant reductions, it is thought that petrol engines will also require lots of "technical" modification so the service life cost issue COULD be similar for both petrol and diesel.

The cost of DPF filters is thrown around as a major expense, here in Turkey my Genuine Dacia part costs around 300TL, that's about £83, so its not a huge issue and the Renault system is a life time system so failures are "not anticipated", unlike some other manufacturers technologies. The "regurgitation valve" the EGF is a pain in both petrol and diesel engines NOW so no change there.

Back in the 1970's we thought the 3ltr Granada would be the last gas guzzler - and oil would run out in 1984! - but that's another scare story.

Have a look at this, in particular I draw your attention to the paragraph on requirements for manufacturers obligations regarding the life of pollution control equipment. (160,000KM) and the dissemination of information on servicing that does not favour dealers.

http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/environment/air_pollution/l28186_en.htm
 

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its like being back at work! - so far I have found two technologies for Nitros Oxide (NOx) reduction the messy expensive ADBlu with Selective Catalist Reduction (SCR) technology or there's a promising cheap technology that COULD rapidly reduce diesel NOx emissions using Nitrogen Enriched Air technology. From what I understand at the moment its a cheap membrane that is inserted between the turbo intercooler and the engine - no moving parts no additional fluids - it just works.

http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncer_abstracts/index.cfm/fuseaction/display.abstractDetail/abstract/1567/report/0

The plot thickens
 

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IF this is all true, then it now makes sense to me why vehicle manufacturers persist with petrol / electric hybrid technology, when they are no more economical than a good turbo diesel engine. Maybe they could see this potential problem on the horizon.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
I looked at the hybrid market, considered the Nissan Leaf, nice car but just too limited range. But my big issue is the charging infrastructure, you can check out online maps and they are everywhere but some big gaps especially up north and cumbria area. They hold more attractions due to free parking in city centre carparks.

BUT here is the killer, we have 10 charging points within 5 mles of my house, I spent a month routinely checking these out, and to my dismay, half did not work and the rest had ICE(internal combustion engines) cars occupiying them. So it was hit and miss if I could charge or not, I do think this could get better but as for now not about to put out £15K on a car that is limited.

I looked at the Vauxhall Ampera but the figures just did not add up. In summary they are close but some way to go.

My current thinking is a cheap dacia and review it all again in 5 years, we do live in interesting time I think we are going to see major changes in cars due to external pressures. But I am a great beliver in simplicity and reliabilty, thats why new cars do not sit well with me.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
DavidH, thanks for that overview, yes if the DPF becomes a cheap replaceable item the problem basically goes away. But as we are from the UK I would not hold my breath waiting for cheap dealer parts.
 

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new cars are plagued with DPF failures even motorway cars, dual mass, EGR failures the list goes on.
Did you write this for a newspaper? I can't think of another reason for the tabloid style exaggeration.

Welcome to the forum :)
 

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DPF tech has increased a lot too. Current diesel cars that are plagued with the problems were the first generation. I did a bit of research and the DPF cleaning that dacia uses (another injector that injects fuel directly into exhaust to increase temperatures) sounds like a sensible solution to all the passive DPF problems.

It might not be, who knows in 10 years it might prove to be unreliable - but in that time I'm sure some very clever people would have thought of a better way to clean the DPF out.

Yes: Parts suppliers want to charge you for expensive parts, but they can't do that at all if no one buys their cars. Eventually they will decide to sell an easy-to-replace DPF so they can sell more.

I did go for Petrol in the end though!.
 

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And you can blame our European Masters for all this expense and hassle. One day soon, only the wealthy will drive cars. It will be like living in 1910.

Thank our EuroMasters nicely, now.
 

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Diesel particulates and the filter that goes with it is only part of the challenge its the reduction in NOx that is harder to achieve with a diesel but as indicated above there is a promising cheap technology out there.

Toyota and Ford are both developing a diesel hybrid - but I think the issue is more short term than that - manufacturers are having difficulty selling petrol cars so they invent a biased report (the "story" is all over the motoring press). However, look at the depreciation rates for largish petrol cars - miserable doesn't even start to describe the loss of value, just look at the Volvo 80 and 90 series, you could buy and scrap 2 Dusters in its first year and still make a profit! Do the Math.

The truth of the matter is that in the not to distant future petrol and diesel cars will have to evolve to be even more environmentally friendly, hybrids vs Renault 1500Dci still can't compete the Renault takes the prize.. So there's a way to go.

PLUS if as the doomsters suggest Diesel fuel becomes unobtainable how will oil fired heating work? how will trucks operate? petrol engines are no good in that application - and for every litre of petrol we refine we make some diesel and that wont change. So its a case of wait and see, but believe that things wont change rapidly, if they change much at all.
 

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EU debate lots of things. If all countries EU elected representatives agree they may become law.

EU debate environmental controls on Diesel vehicles. Motor and haulage industry joins the debate by going into SCAREMONGER mode.

Meanwhile, Diesel cars outsell petrol cars for the first time in UK in 2012. Diesel cars, never that popular in USA are hugely increasing sales as petrol prices go up,

Are the EU elected representatives really going to vote to piss off over HALF of all drivers?
 
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